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VZCZCXRO5961
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHLO #0364/01 0481718
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 171718Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4989
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 000364
SIPDIS
NOFORN
EO 12958 DECL: 02/16/2020
TAGS ECON, EINV, PGOV, UK
SUBJECT: BANK OF ENGLAND GOVERNOR: CONCERN ABOUT RECOVERY,
CONSERVATIVES’ READINESS, AND THE UK IN THE EU
Classified By: Ambassador Louis B. Susman for reasons 1.4 b and d.
¶1. (C/NF) Summary. Reining in the UK’s debt will be the greatest challenge facing the party that wins the expected May 6 general election, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King told the Ambassador in a February
16 meeting. While neither party has adequately detailed plans to reduce the deficit, King expressed great concern about Conservative leaders’ lack of experience and opined that Party leader David Cameron and Shadow Chancellor George Osborne have not fully grasped the pressures they will face from different groups when attempting to cut spending. King also raised concerns about the global economic recovery, arguing that global growth in 2010 would be anemic and a double-dip recession remained a possibility. Greece’s profound economic troubles will trigger a further consolidation in power within the euro-zone, with Germany and France likely to impose the right to scrutinize if not exercise some control over Greek government accounts in return for an implicit or explicit guarantee, he predicted. The UK has been on the sidelines in the debate over Greece and could have less influence in the EU, as Germany and France will seek greater political cohesion in the euro-zone in the aftermath of the Greek crisis, he stated. End Summary
....
Greece’s Problems Will Re-Define Euro-Zone
------------------------------------------
¶6. (C/NF) Germany and France will ultimately have no choice but to offer explicit guarantees of Greek debt, argued King. The euro-zone could not risk a Greek default and euro devaluation would not be an acceptable political option for Germany or France. Germany and France will likely, as a
http://logioshermes.blogspot.com
condition of any guarantee, require the ability to scrutinize if not exercise some control over the Greek budget. Longer-term, the drive for greater political cohesion will accelerate. The EU’s one single success was the monetary union, and now that success has been undermined. Leaders in Germany and France have recognized that allowing monetary union to happen without corresponding political cohesion was a mistake and one that needed to be rectified, King opined.
¶7. (C/NF) The euro-zone’s move to greater political cohesion could poise some disadvantages for the UK, King speculated. During the February 16 ECOFIN meeting, euro-zone governments politely listened to Chancellor Darling when he commented on the situation in Greece, but he was not invited to attend internal discussions since the UK is not part of the euro-zone. It would be incumbent for the UK to demonstrate that it has something meaningful to say and to be constructively engaged in the EU, should this greater political cohesion among the euro-zone governments occur, commented King.
Visit London’s Classified Website: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom
SUSMAN
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHLO #0364/01 0481718
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 171718Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4989
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 000364
SIPDIS
NOFORN
EO 12958 DECL: 02/16/2020
TAGS ECON, EINV, PGOV, UK
SUBJECT: BANK OF ENGLAND GOVERNOR: CONCERN ABOUT RECOVERY,
CONSERVATIVES’ READINESS, AND THE UK IN THE EU
Classified By: Ambassador Louis B. Susman for reasons 1.4 b and d.
¶1. (C/NF) Summary. Reining in the UK’s debt will be the greatest challenge facing the party that wins the expected May 6 general election, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King told the Ambassador in a February
16 meeting. While neither party has adequately detailed plans to reduce the deficit, King expressed great concern about Conservative leaders’ lack of experience and opined that Party leader David Cameron and Shadow Chancellor George Osborne have not fully grasped the pressures they will face from different groups when attempting to cut spending. King also raised concerns about the global economic recovery, arguing that global growth in 2010 would be anemic and a double-dip recession remained a possibility. Greece’s profound economic troubles will trigger a further consolidation in power within the euro-zone, with Germany and France likely to impose the right to scrutinize if not exercise some control over Greek government accounts in return for an implicit or explicit guarantee, he predicted. The UK has been on the sidelines in the debate over Greece and could have less influence in the EU, as Germany and France will seek greater political cohesion in the euro-zone in the aftermath of the Greek crisis, he stated. End Summary
....
Greece’s Problems Will Re-Define Euro-Zone
------------------------------------------
¶6. (C/NF) Germany and France will ultimately have no choice but to offer explicit guarantees of Greek debt, argued King. The euro-zone could not risk a Greek default and euro devaluation would not be an acceptable political option for Germany or France. Germany and France will likely, as a
http://logioshermes.blogspot.com
condition of any guarantee, require the ability to scrutinize if not exercise some control over the Greek budget. Longer-term, the drive for greater political cohesion will accelerate. The EU’s one single success was the monetary union, and now that success has been undermined. Leaders in Germany and France have recognized that allowing monetary union to happen without corresponding political cohesion was a mistake and one that needed to be rectified, King opined.
¶7. (C/NF) The euro-zone’s move to greater political cohesion could poise some disadvantages for the UK, King speculated. During the February 16 ECOFIN meeting, euro-zone governments politely listened to Chancellor Darling when he commented on the situation in Greece, but he was not invited to attend internal discussions since the UK is not part of the euro-zone. It would be incumbent for the UK to demonstrate that it has something meaningful to say and to be constructively engaged in the EU, should this greater political cohesion among the euro-zone governments occur, commented King.
Visit London’s Classified Website: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom
SUSMAN
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